If you’re paying attention to higher education, you may have seen this week’s piece in the Boston Globe by Yoohyun Jung. It’s worth your time. Using enrollment data, closure maps, and labor market figures, Jung paints a clear and unsettling picture of where the sector is headed — and in some cases, where it already is.
Here are the findings we think matter most, and why.
The demographic cliff has arrived. For years, scholars warned that declining birth rates would eventually produce a sustained drop in college enrollment. That moment is here. Between 2010 and 2020, Iowa lost nearly half its college students. Michigan lost a third. Massachusetts, home to one of the most storied higher education ecosystems in the country, is projected to lose another 8 percent of its high school graduate pool by 2041. New England as a region is expected to feel this more acutely than most.
Institutions are closing and consolidating at a notable pace. The article tracks closures and mergers from 2016 through 2026. This isn’t a distant warning. It’s a current reality, and experts note that more selective institutions will weather the storm better than regional schools and smaller colleges, which tend to draw from a more limited geographic and demographic pool.
International recruitment can no longer plug the gap. Many schools quietly used international enrollment to offset domestic shortfalls. That strategy has been significantly disrupted by visa restrictions under the current administration: new international student enrollment fell 17 percent in fall 2025. Schools that depended on that pipeline are now in a more difficult position than those that invested in domestic brand and reputation-building.
Students are thinking about return on investment — and asking harder questions. The article highlights a striking data point from the Lumina Foundation and Gallup: 16 percent of current college students have already changed their major because of AI’s potential impact on the labor market. This generation is arriving at the college decision with sharper, more pragmatic questions than their predecessors. They want to understand not just what a school offers, but what their life will actually look like on the other side of a degree.
That last point is where we spend most of our working lives. The institutions best positioned to navigate this environment aren’t necessarily the largest or most prestigious. They’re the ones that have done the hard, honest work of understanding who they are, who they serve, and why that matters — and have built their digital presence to reflect it with clarity and conviction. When the pool of prospective students shrinks, generic messaging blends into the void, if not disappears entirely.
The Globe frames this moment as turbulent, but notes that turbulence creates opportunities for change. We’d agree. Institutions that treat this as a moment to sharpen their identity and strengthen their digital voice will be far better positioned than those waiting for conditions to stabilize. They won’t.
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ERI specializes in brand strategy and digital experience for higher education and mission-driven organizations. Based in Portland, Maine and Worcester, Massachusetts.
